The overwhelming majority (95%) of newly prepared teachers from Oregon institutions are white, with only 5% racial/ethnic minorities. Minorities constitute 6% of the total state population and 15% of the public K-12 student population (several school districts are well above 15% racial/ethnic minority students).

Employment

TSPC studies over the past decade have found that about two-thirds of the newly prepared educators obtain employment in an Oregon public school in the 18 months following college graduation. Newly licensed educators are also employed in private schools, as substitute teachers, with other education-related employers, and in non-education employment. (Note: non-education employment is particularly an option, we believe, for math, physics, and chemistry teachers in high-technology related industries.)

Employment rates for the 1997-98 newly prepared licensees from Oregon institutions indicate that many fields experienced placement rates in Oregon public schools of 70% or better in the year following graduation: math, business, music, social studies, Japanese, school psychologists, Spanish, biology, special education, chemistry, Russian, German, administrators, and counselors.

The largest single category of educators – elementary – had only a 53% employment rate; 370 of 703 newly prepared Oregon elementary licensees appeared as employed at .5 FTE or more in an Oregon public school by May 1999 (following graduation from college/university in 1997-98). These statistics suggest that there will continue to be new elementary teachers entering the reserve pool (see Reserve Pool section), as well as teachers in areas such as art, physical education, language arts, etc., entering the reserve pool.

In-Migration

For the past decade, approximately 1,200-1,500 educators have annually moved to Oregon and requested a license from TSPC (1,247 in 1995-96). In 1996-97, new licensees from out-of-state dropped to 842, a first-time drop below 1,000. However, in 1997-98, new licensees from out-of-state were back up to traditional levels (1,182).

In 1997-98, two states accounted for 41% of the newly licensed educators in Oregon: California (273) and Washington (206). Three states accounted for 48% of the newly licensed educators: California, Washington, and Idaho (93). Seven states accounted for 68% of the newly licensed educators in Oregon: California, Washington, Idaho, Texas (51), Montana (48), Illinois (46), Utah (45), and Arizona (543).

Reserve Pool

A 1986 statewide study identified 29,044 licensed educators in the reserve pool (licensed educators not employed in an Oregon public school); 25,000 were residing in Oregon and the majority were under the age of 41. Estimates then were that 17,000-20,000 made up the reserve pool when the nonresidents and individuals aged 50+ were eliminated.

A 1992 statewide study of the reserve pool identified 18,000 licensed educators not employed in an Oregon public school under the age of 54; 14,000 or 75% of them held Oregon addresses. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that in 1999 there are yet many licensed teachers in the reserve pool, perhaps 10,000 to 12,000. The 1986 study did identify many individuals who indicated they wished to be employed in schools, either then or in the near future (often when child-rearing responsibilities were completed). However, many individuals in the reserve pool are satisfactorily employed in other positions, are not seeking public school employment, are serving as substitute teachers but don't wish fulltime teaching positions, etc.

Whatever the actual size of the reserve pool, not all reserve pool teachers are, therefore, prospects for fulltime employment in Oregon public schools. Also, most of these individuals are not likely prepared to teach in Oregon's standards-based schools.

Licenses Lapsed

Previous studies by TSPC indicate there are several thousand teachers in Oregon with a "lapsed" license. Educators with a lapsed license may come back into the teacher force after completing nine hours of college credit. However, these individuals are likely not prepared to teach in standards-based schools.

Retirements

In 1994, the average age for retirement of state workers was 61 (PERS data ). A 1998 statewide study of educator retirements indicate that 61 is an average retirement age. However, many in the educator workforce also retire one to two years sooner (it's not unusual for many Oregon teachers to complete 30 years of service at the ages of 58 or 59).

In 1993, there were 869 educators employed in Oregon public schools who were aged 61 and older. In 1998, there were 173 educators aged 66 and older. In 1998, we estimated a retirement rate of 80% for the 61 and older group (there were then another 38 educators employed in Oregon public schools who were aged 70 and older). The number of 55-60 year old educators in 1998 in key endorsement areas plus 80% of the 61-65 year olds were 3,576 (55-60 in 1998), plus 596 (61-65). An estimate of new positions likely from retirements, therefore, was 74% of 3,576 (74% of the educators aged 55-60 in 1993 were retired by 1998) plus 80% of 596, or 3,123 who were expected to retire soon.

Recent studies have assumed orderly annual retirements over the next three to five years in key endorsement areas, with districts expected to replace from 625 to 1,041 positions each year due to retirements. Retirement data from the Oregon Department of Education for 1998-99 certified personnel (see next section) indicates that the actual number for 1998-99 was 1,284. This is a higher number, ODE indicates, than in previous years.

Our estimates for retirement rates over the next three to five years, therefore, based on 1998-99 actual rates, may need to span a somewhat wider range than previously projected – from 625 to 1,250 (rather than 625 to 1,041). This is a projected annual retirement rate of 1.9% to 3.7%.

Those Leaving the Profession

The number of educators annually leaving public school employment each year is close to 4,000, or about 12%. However, not all these individuals are leaving the profession. For example, when the number of educators leaving to take a position in another district are excluded, the percentage leaving the profession drops to 9%. Also, many individuals appear to be "stopping out" for a variety of reasons, with expectations to return to teaching in the future. The reasons educators provide for leaving their public school employment are as follows:

The section on Facts/Figures reveals a number of trends and continuing issues for school districts, educator preparation programs, TSPC, and other interested organizations to consider.

• With 3,101 individuals leaving public school employment each year and a regular infusion of about 2,800 to 3,100 new educators (1,500 newly prepared educators from Oregon institutions plus 1,100 who move to Oregon from other states plus some in the reserve pool who may be seeking regular employment*), we are likely to be able to handle most replacement needs, except in certain specialities and locations in the state (geographic locations which consistently experience shortages of licensed educators whether we have an oversupply or undersupply of educators). These projections could fall short if public school classroom size is significantly reduced in future years, resulting in additional staffing needs by school districts; or if the state's population growth increases rapidly, resulting in many more school-age children.
  *There will continue to be newly licensed individuals entering the reserve pool annually since not all newly licensed educators obtain employment in Oregon public schools following licensure (see Employment section). Also, many of the 3,101 individuals who are leaving their school positions annually (see Those Leaving the Profession section ) are not permanently leaving the profession; many are expected to return to school employment in the future (e.g., those continuing their education, taking a leave of absence or sabbatical, those leaving because of pregnancy – there are about 600 in these categories alone, and another 600 who are leaving for other known or unknown reasons).
• Regardless of the numbers available for employment consideration, not all the educators in these pools will be well versed in school reform (e.g., those who have been in the reserve pool for awhile will likely not be well prepared for Oregon school reforms nor those moving to Oregon from states which are not involved in standards-based school reforms). This will be an expense to districts — to assist newly employed teachers to develop the knowledge/skills to implement school reform plans.
• Recent increased production of educators should help to address the shortages projected by school districts throughout the state, particularly if this latest up-trend stabilizes and/or continues for the next few years. The employment rates in Oregon public schools suggests that the additional increases in new Oregon licensees are desirable in key specialty areas like foreign languages, math, sciences, special education, etc. However, significant growth does not appear to be needed in elementary, or some other specialties in which employment rates are at or below 50% (physics is an exception where the low rates are likely due to new licensees securing employment in more attractive non-education fields).
• It will be vital that Oregon continues to attract out-of-state educators to help meet shortages expected, particularly in high-demand fields. TSPC's reciprocity agreements with other states and aggressive school districts' recruitment of out-of-state educators are likely important components of the increased in-migration of out-of-state teachers which occurred in 1997-98.
• Further attention is needed to diversify the educator workforce, particularly to increase the racial/ethnic diversity and achieve more gender balance within certain specialties.
• It would be helpful in determining the actual employment rates of certain educators who are already identified in the Oregon public school database prior to completion of their latest license (e.g., administrators, special educators, counselors, others) to revise the TSPC method of determining employment, which presently searches the Oregon Department of Education Certified Personnel Report for employment status, but does not search for assignment within the employment status. This would enable future studies to determine if employment following the newest license is in a "new" assignment area (did the educator who became licensed as an administrator assume an administrative position in a public school or continue employment as a teacher).
• Given projected shortages in many specialty areas, preparation programs should continue to aggressively market programs in these areas by recruiting talented students. Also, institutions should closely follow the placement rates of their own graduates as well as graduates of other programs, to invest additional resources as feasible in the high-demand specialties.
• School districts should make available information well ahead of time about the types of staffing they will need so that higher education institutions can better respond to fill these needs.
• Higher education institutions, TSPC, and school districts should continue to work closely together to ensure that all graduates from teacher preparation programs are highly employable — and prepared to teach in standards-based schools — so we can afford to have a smaller applicant pool for districts.
• Higher education institutions, school districts, and TSPC should continue to work together to ensure that we have a sufficient number of quality placements in K-12 schools for the required licensure-related practicum and student teaching (e.g., schools actively addressing school reform, opportunities to practice standards-based teaching, including assessments tied to standards, experienced supervising teachers).
• School districts will have the major issue of how to make jobs in Oregon schools attractive/competitive so that Oregon schools do not lose graduates to other states, we continue to attract out-of-state new licensees, and we do not lose graduates to higher-paying positions outside of education.